Choose odds above 1.70

I grant you, it is possible to find a value bet with odds lower than 1.70 and in this case, you can play it. But in general and in the long term, I advise you not to regularly play odds below 1.70.

The lower the odds, the higher your success rate should be!

When you bet €100 on odds of 1.25, you have to win at least 4 matches out of 5 to be just in balance, that is to say not to lose or win money. We are therefore talking about a success rate of more than 80% to hope to make a profit. However, in fact (as I speak to you), Barcelona has a record of 11 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in its 17 home games.

Here is the balance you would have if you had bet €100 each time on Barcelona winning at home:

11 wins at odds of 1.25: +2.75 units
4 draws and 2 defeats: – 6 units

That is a balance of -3.25 units and therefore €325 in losses with a bet of €100.

Having followed football diligently for several years, the example of Barcelona is not a rare case. I could also have chosen the record of PSG at home, that of Liverpool, Juve, etc. Each week, the surprises are multiple and the odds at 1.25 do not allow a success rate of less than 80%. You will agree that it is difficult to win in the long term.

This may be obvious, but this rule is even truer in the current context: end of the championships, Euro 2021 approaching, tired teams, Covid, etc. There are plenty of reasons that could explain the lack of motivation of a team. This is why it is essential to carefully select the matches on which you play.
On behalf of the 36th day of Ligue 1, a match will oppose Nice to Brest. As 카지노사이트 can see, Nice is 10th and no longer has the possibility of grabbing a European place. Brest is 14th and its maintenance is assured. From this observation, it is difficult to identify a motivational trend. Personally, this is the kind of meeting on which I advise you not to bet.
2 – Favor teams with high stakes

At the end of the championship, some teams have reason to be more motivated than others:

Lille and Paris for the title
Strasbourg, Lorient, Nantes and Nîmes for maintenance.
Lyon and Monaco for the Champions League
Lens, Marseille and Rennes for 5th place

3 – Beware of the “relegation team myth”.

We often hear that a team on the brink of relegation at the end of the season will be ultra-motivated to win. Yes it is true, but it should not be made a truth. If Nantes or Nîmes are 18th and 19th at this time of the season, it is also for good reasons. A relegation team is not going to suddenly start winning all its games just because it is threatened by the descent. If you bet on a team that is struggling to maintain, I advise you to push your analysis a little further before deciding.

Choose odds above 1.70

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Scroll to top